The battle for Luke Weaver’s next team is heating up—whose roster will he join? This question has fans speculating as Weaver enters free agency after a solid year as one of the Yankees’ key relievers. This season, he posted a respectable 3.62 ERA over 64⅔ innings, showcasing his ability to strike out batters at a clip of 27.5% while maintaining a walk rate of just 7.6%. Notably, he ranked 38th among all relievers with qualified statistics when considering K-BB ratio, indicating a solid overall performance. However, this is a slight step back from his 2024 campaign, where he recorded a 2.89 ERA and an impressive 23.3% K-BB rate, placing him among the top 20 relievers out of 169 qualifying pitchers. Overall, Weaver spent two productive seasons in New York and is expected to attract considerable interest in free agency.
But here’s where it gets controversial—the decline in Weaver’s performance after a June injury on his left hamstring. Before the injury, he maintained a stellar 2.31 ERA in 24 appearances through the end of May. Post-injury, his ERA soared to 5.31 over 40 games, reflecting a noticeable drop in effectiveness. Additionally, his groundball rate plummeted from 36.4% in 2024 to a mere 27.5% this year, placing him in the lowest percentile among pitchers according to Statcast data. His fly ball rate also surged close to 10 percentage points, reaching 56.3%, which is well above the league average of 38.1% for relievers. Such a change suggests he is now more prone to giving up fly balls, which could be problematic, especially considering the hitter-friendly environment of some ballparks.
And this is the part most people miss—teams are still likely to be very interested in Weaver’s strikeout prowess and recent experience handling high-leverage situations. Plus, he has expressed a willingness to transition into a starting pitcher role, adding versatility that many teams find appealing. At MLBTR, we've ranked Weaver as the 41st best available free agent and projected a two-year, $18 million contract for him. Now the question is: which team will step up and offer him the deal?
Let’s explore some of the most probable suitors:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s bullpen in 2025 ranked near the bottom of the league, with a -0.3 fWAR and a 4.82 ERA, placing them 28th and 27th respectively. While relievers like Shelby Miller and Andrew Saalfrank had sub-2.00 ERAs across multiple innings, most other relievers struggled, with only Jalen Beeks posting a relatively decent 3.74 ERA among the qualified relievers. Weaver, with his strikeout ability, could be an excellent addition to bolster their bullpen. However, considering Chase Field’s hitter-friendly reputation, Weaver’s increased fly ball tendencies might pose a challenge. Interestingly, the Diamondbacks are looking to improve their starting rotation, which could mean Weaver might shift into a starter’s role if they see fit.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners' bullpen was average in 2025, finishing 17th in fWAR and ninth in ERA, with most of their games played at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Key relievers like Andrés Muñoz, Gabe Speier, and Matt Brash all posted ERAs under 2.70, with solid strikeout rates above 29%. Their bullpen could benefit from Weaver’s experience and strikeout skills, especially since they already have a prior connection—he pitched 13⅓ innings for Seattle back in 2023. The spacious ballpark might help mitigate his fly ball issues, making the Mariners a compelling landing spot.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore’s bullpen struggled somewhat in 2025, ranking 23rd with a 1.9 fWAR and 25th in ERA at 4.57. Their top relievers like Keegan Akin and Yennier Cano had mixed success, with Akin posting a negative WAR and Cano’s ERA sitting at 5.11, although his xERA was much better at 3.59. The team traded Seranthony Dominguez and saw Felix Bautista sidelined with injuries until at least September 2026. With Baltimore seeking an experienced reliever to close gaps, Weaver’s proven track record in the AL East could make him a valuable fit.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs finished 19th in reliever WAR with 3.1 and tied for 14th in strikeout rate at 22.7% in 2025. Their rotation includes pitchers like Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel Palencia, and Drew Pomeranz—most with ERAs below 3.00 but now all free agents. Although Andrew Kittredge recently posted an impressive 35.4% K-BB rate, he was traded back to the Orioles in November. The Cubs could target Weaver to add experience and power to their bullpen, especially behind rising stars like Palencia.
So, where do you think Luke Weaver will land this offseason? Will it be a team looking for bullpen depth, a potential starter, or perhaps someone willing to take a chance on his high-leverage ability despite recent struggles? Cast your vote in the poll below and share your thoughts—do you agree with our projections, or do you see another team swooping in? This offseason promises surprises, and Weaver’s next chapter is just beginning.
