The Cincinnati Reds are quietly navigating a challenging timeline with their top prospect, Tyler Stephenson, who is approaching free agency in 2026. This situation presents a complex dilemma for the team's front office. While they have short-term and long-term plans for their catching position, they lack a solid medium-term option if Stephenson departs.
Stephenson, now 29, has shown both impressive and underwhelming performances in recent seasons. His inconsistent batting and defensive metrics, which range from the 95th percentile in Blocks Above Average to the 13th percentile in framing runs, make a long-term contract extension a risky proposition. On the other hand, relying on Jose Trevino, who will be 34, to step into a starting role is also not an ideal solution.
The likelihood of trading Stephenson has diminished due to the Reds' limited alternatives. However, with each passing day without an extension, it becomes increasingly evident that he may not be the catcher of the future for the team.
Enter Alfredo Duno, the top prospect who could provide an in-house solution. At just 20 years old, Duno posted an impressive .948 OPS and 163 wRC+ in 2025, leaving Reds fans excited about his future. However, there are concerns about his ability to remain a catcher long-term, with scouts praising his arm but questioning his size and pop time.
While there have been successful catchers with similar builds, the Reds' strong starting rotation demands a high level of defensive prowess from their backstop. Can Duno, who has yet to play a game at High-A Dayton, answer these questions and rise through the minor leagues in 2026?
Trevino's presence is crucial here. With two more seasons under contract and a club option for 2028, he provides valuable experience and a solid defensive presence. His ability to call good games and his Gold Glove award in 2022 make him a key piece in the Reds' catching puzzle.
Asking a 20-year-old catcher to rapidly progress from Single-A to the major leagues is a tall order, especially at a position known for its slow development. While Duno's raw potential is undeniable, if he isn't ready for the big leagues by 2027, Trevino should not be expected to handle a starter's workload.
There is still time to find a bridge between Stephenson and Duno, but this is a significant issue that the Reds must address. It's a delicate balance between trusting their top prospect and ensuring they have a reliable catcher for the future.
