The Dodgers' Decision: A Bold Move or a Missed Opportunity?
The Los Angeles Dodgers recently made a surprising move by non-tendering former closer Evan Phillips, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. This decision has sparked intrigue among baseball enthusiasts, especially considering Phillips' impressive track record. But here's where it gets controversial—the Dodgers let go of a pitcher who, in 2022, boasted an incredible 1.14 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 63 innings pitched.
Phillips' situation is a unique one. He's coming off a major surgery, and his projected $6.1MM salary, doubled due to taxes, might have been a factor in the Dodgers' decision. However, the timing of his surgery in early June leaves room for speculation about his potential return this season.
A Free Agent's Dilemma
Phillips, a 31-veteran, is now a free agent with a preference for a one-year deal, according to Tim Healey of the Boston Globe. This strategy allows him to test the market again next offseason. But the question remains: is this the best approach for a player in his position?
Impressive Stats and a Cautious Approach
Since his breakout season in 2022, Phillips has maintained a stellar performance with a 2.14 ERA, a 29.6% strikeout rate, and a 6.6% walk rate over 184 2/3 innings. His pitch velocity is impressive, with a four-seamer clocking over 96 mph. And this is the part most people miss—he's not just a strikeout machine; he's also adept at inducing ground balls, with a 43.3% ground-ball rate.
Timing is Everything
Phillips' signing timeline is crucial. Waiting until January or later allows him to showcase his rehab progress, potentially increasing his value. But waiting until midseason has its perks, too. He can assess which teams are contenders and avoid the possibility of a qualifying offer (QO), which could hinder his future earnings. And this is where it gets tricky—only a few relievers have received QOs in the past five years, and they were elite closers.
The Midseason Signing Strategy
By signing midseason, Phillips can ensure he's fully healthy and choose a team based on their playoff prospects. This approach mirrors David Robertson's strategy last year, who waited for the right offer and joined a contender midseason. But will Phillips find similar success? And what if he encounters setbacks during his recovery?
As the baseball world watches, Phillips' decision will undoubtedly spark debates. Is he making a strategic move, or is he missing out on potential opportunities? What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
